FinCausalGraph: A Hierarchical Interactive Financial Causal Graph System

FinCausalGraph is an open-source visualization system whose core goal is to construct a three-layer causal graph for financial policy transmission, linking abstract monetary policy reasoning with specific real-world events. It supports evidence tracing and interactive exploration, and can be directly deployed to GitHub Pages. This system aims to address the problems that traditional financial analysis stays at the correlation level and large language model reasoning is a black box lacking evidence support.

In the financial field, understanding the causal relationship between policy transmission to markets and events is a core demand. However, traditional analysis struggles to reveal true causality; the reasoning process of large language models is like a black box, lacking traceable evidence. FinCausalGraph proposes a hierarchical interactive graph system that links abstract policy reasoning with specific events, making causal relationships transparent and explorable.

FinCausalGraph adopts a three-layer hierarchical architecture:

• Top layer: Focuses on monetary policy decisions such as central bank interest rate adjustments and quantitative easing, which are the starting points of the causal chain;
• Middle layer: Refines top-layer policies into nine specific tools (e.g., credit, exchange rate policies);
• Bottom layer: Breaks down into micro-mechanism nodes (e.g., bank credit, asset price channels);
• Right side: Links to three specific real-world events, each with evidence tracing.

Core Features:

• Evidence anchoring: Each causal connection is supported by specific evidence, allowing traceability of reasoning basis;
• Bridge between abstract and concrete: Links macro policies with micro events;
• Interactive exploration: Supports non-linear exploration such as node expansion/collapse and path tracing;
• Policy transmission visualization: Intuitively displays the policy transmission process.

Technical Implementation:

• Pure front-end stack (HTML/CSS/JS, code organized with ES Modules);
• Graph data is stored in graph_data/*.json;
• Supports deployment to GitHub Pages; local operation only requires starting a static server (e.g., python3 -m http.server 8080).

Application Scenarios:

• Policy research: Analyze the effectiveness of policy transmission and identify key nodes;
• Teaching demonstration: Intuitively display the monetary policy transmission mechanism;
• Investment analysis: Assist in understanding the underlying factors of market trends;
• Event review: Sort out the transmission paths of historical events.

Data Expansion: The graph can be modified/expanded by updating graph_data/*.json, supporting different policy themes, updating event data, expanding layers, or linking events.

Open-Source Significance: Provides a lightweight visualization solution; the pure front-end architecture lowers the deployment threshold, allowing users to quickly build their own graph sites.

Limitations:

• Data needs to be manually prepared and updated; no automated causal extraction;
• Ultra-large-scale graphs are limited by front-end performance;
• Causal accuracy depends on manual construction.

Future Directions:

• Automated causal extraction (combining large models);
• Dynamic data access;
• Collaborative editing function;
• Expansion to fields such as industrial and environmental policies.

FinCausalGraph makes complex policy transmission mechanisms intuitively understandable through hierarchical visualization, which has reference value in the era of AI interpretability. It provides financial researchers, policy analysts, investors, and ordinary users with a unique perspective to understand the complex causal chains that shape economic life.